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How Much Does Age Increase Value....If At All?

While I think most of us would not consider how much extra we could sell a box for, because of it's age, I think this is an important question when considering value of a cigar during a Pass. The age and rarity very much play into the value of the cigar when trading in a pass, and is quite often discussed when evaluating puts and takes.
 
While I think most of us would not consider how much extra we could sell a box for, because of it's age, I think this is an important question when considering value of a cigar during a Pass. The age and rarity very much play into the value of the cigar when trading in a pass, and is quite often discussed when evaluating puts and takes.

Great point...

But can we take that debate of increased value based on age and/or rarity during a P&T and extrapolate it to an updated box price?...and not be flirting with the 'anti gouging' rule here?

Meaning, if someone was looking to sell a box of cigars over MSRP in the B/S/T Forum, is it appropriate to link the discussion within a Pass (where the new pricing was carefully discussed and agreed upon) to justify the new price?


Or is this mechanism already in place and I just have no idea it exists? :laugh:
 
While I think most of us would not consider how much extra we could sell a box for, because of it's age, I think this is an important question when considering value of a cigar during a Pass. The age and rarity very much play into the value of the cigar when trading in a pass, and is quite often discussed when evaluating puts and takes.

Wow an Andy sighting! :)

And oh, what the the BeeDog said!
 
I'm a bit of a contrarian here. I have smoked too many lightly aged Cubans (10 years or less) that were not worth anything over the msrp, if even that. Aging is so much of a crap shoot, I fail to see how one could give a blanket answer to this. I also disagree with the 65% RH belief, and yes, I submit that it is a belief, an opinion, with no real scientific backing. For instance, it is well known that cigars start losing oleo-resins once humidity drops below 69%. In addition, I remember reading about a blind study of Aged versus Fresh Cuban cigars. The fresh won handily. I myself prefer the fresh flavor of a cigar, and know that at least, for a while, the cigar will resemble a given Marca flavor profile. I have also experimented aging CCs at 65 and 69, and the 69 had much better flavor after 5 years. I.e., they retained their character. Granted, this is based on about 6 or 7 yrs somewhat heavy exposure and experimentation to CCs, versus over 30 yrs with NCs. I think the magical aged cuban cigar is very rare, in absolute terms. I suspect a person with a load of experience will better be able to make educated guesses as to whether or not an aged box if cigars is worth a premium. I may change my opinion as time goes on, but suspect it will be more in the realm of cigars that were great before aging, and cigars that were aged over 10 years.
 
I'm a bit of a contrarian here. I have smoked too many lightly aged Cubans (10 years or less) that were not worth anything over the msrp, if even that. Aging is so much of a crap shoot, I fail to see how one could give a blanket answer to this. I also disagree with the 65% RH belief, and yes, I submit that it is a belief, an opinion, with no real scientific backing. For instance, it is well known that cigars start losing oleo-resins once humidity drops below 69%. In addition, I remember reading about a blind study of Aged versus Fresh Cuban cigars. The fresh won handily. I myself prefer the fresh flavor of a cigar, and know that at least, for a while, the cigar will resemble a given Marca flavor profile. I have also experimented aging CCs at 65 and 69, and the 69 had much better flavor after 5 years. I.e., they retained their character. Granted, this is based on about 6 or 7 yrs somewhat heavy exposure and experimentation to CCs, versus over 30 yrs with NCs. I think the magical aged cuban cigar is very rare, in absolute terms. I suspect a person with a load of experience will better be able to make educated guesses as to whether or not an aged box if cigars is worth a premium. I may change my opinion as time goes on, but suspect it will be more in the realm of cigars that were great before aging, and cigars that were aged over 10 years.

From what I've always understood, Cuban cigars should be aged at 70% and consumed at 65%.

Doc
 
I'm a bit of a contrarian here. I have smoked too many lightly aged Cubans (10 years or less) that were not worth anything over the msrp, if even that. Aging is so much of a crap shoot, I fail to see how one could give a blanket answer to this. I also disagree with the 65% RH belief, and yes, I submit that it is a belief, an opinion, with no real scientific backing. For instance, it is well known that cigars start losing oleo-resins once humidity drops below 69%. In addition, I remember reading about a blind study of Aged versus Fresh Cuban cigars. The fresh won handily. I myself prefer the fresh flavor of a cigar, and know that at least, for a while, the cigar will resemble a given Marca flavor profile. I have also experimented aging CCs at 65 and 69, and the 69 had much better flavor after 5 years. I.e., they retained their character. Granted, this is based on about 6 or 7 yrs somewhat heavy exposure and experimentation to CCs, versus over 30 yrs with NCs. I think the magical aged cuban cigar is very rare, in absolute terms. I suspect a person with a load of experience will better be able to make educated guesses as to whether or not an aged box if cigars is worth a premium. I may change my opinion as time goes on, but suspect it will be more in the realm of cigars that were great before aging, and cigars that were aged over 10 years.

From what I've always understood, Cuban cigars should be aged at 70% and consumed at 65%.

Doc

It seems to me there is controversy between the two numbers. I wholeheartedly agree with the 70, and smoke at 65 though. One proponent of 65% aging, if my gray matter isn't misfiring, is Suckling who also seems to suffer, terribly, from gustatory hallucinations. (best phrase, ever) Honey being one flavor he seems to consistently mention.
 
Taking a look at prices in cigar auctions, it seems like limitadas consistently increase in price faster than others.  Within these, the Cohiba Limitadas probably fare better than others.  Taking prices from CA's ratings database in pounds and multiplying to get box prices (for the cigars when they were new) and auction prices in Britain, since the tobacco tax issue is constant between those two (unless it has gone up with time, this I don't know):
 
Cohiba Esplendidos: 575 (1998), 1400 in 2012, 5.0% return
Cohiba Sublimes EL 2004: 712.5 (2005), avg. 2050 in 2012, 13.2% return
Cohiba Double Coronas EL 2003: 800 (2003), 1800 in 2012, 9.0% return
Montecristo Double Coronas EL 2001: 475 (2002), 820 in 2012, 5.5% return
Montecristo #2: 465 (1970s, price/box in 2011 quoted by CA), 2600 in 2012, ~4.7%
 
I didn't do the math for Dunhills and Davidoffs, but it seems like those were probably a good asset to hold.  Obviously this is an approximation based on numbers that are not perfect, but I think it gives the general sense that cuban cigars tend to appreciate at 5%/yr once they have gotten old enough for anyone to give a damn about how old they are.  For example, Siglo VIs from 2006 were 480, which is actually less than what CA suggests they were in 2006.  This all makes sense (as it has been mentioned) from a supply/demand standpoint.  The demand for limitadas is based on a certain, limited release, while demand for vintage standard production smokes isn't based on a single year - usually the nearby years will be a similar product.  Which means there is a much wider range of similar products that won't feel the pinch of low supply the same way that limitadas will.  Within this, it seems like good vintages (late eighties, early nineties) are probably more demanded than bad ones (1999-2002).  Based on my experience with Partagas Lusitanias, you probably try to pawn those cigars from 99-02 on people who don't smoke/annoy you.
 
Curtis
 
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