• Hi Guest - Come check out all of the new CP Merch Shop! Now you can support CigarPass buy purchasing hats, apparel, and more...
    Click here to visit! here...

Some help, please?

LilBastage

Meat is murder! Tasty, tasty murder.
Joined
Oct 25, 2005
Messages
5,461
Alright, let's try to do this without going off in the wrong (re:political) direction.


I'm trying to figure out what's really happening with the events of the last couple of days. I can't find anything out there that doesn't try to blame one person/party or the other and that gives me REAL information on what's going on, what has caused/contributed to it, and what it really means for the average Joe.

Can someone point me to a nonpolitical, non-biased, information filled summation or can someone give me a quick and dirty synopsis? I've done the Google and stuff like that, but I"m having trouble weeding through the chaff.

I know some of you are in the industry, so hopefully I can get some help here. I'm not afraid or ashamed to admit that I can't make heads or tails out of what the heck is going on right now. It's well over my head.

I'm really just trying to learn more about this and I'm getting frustrated with the BS that I keep running into. I just want real information. One would think that would be easy to find given the "information age" we're in, but real information seems hard to come by in this political year. :rolleyes:
 
This article talks about AIG. It makes some sense, basically comes down to tighter credit for everyone.

Link
 
Well, I could tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.....

just kidding...mostly...


But honestly, you can't explain this unless you bring politics into it. There is a lot of politics involved here. I could try and explain the economics of it, but it would still make Demos mad. (this is not to say Repubs don't screw up the economy at times)

My advice, read up on some texts on the money supply and supply and demand theory, and you can start to piece together what happens with fiat money and how it can be manipulated for political ends.

Bottom line, people not paying the mortgage which causes no money to flow into banks, which causes banks not to be able to meet their debts on the money they borrow to finance the mortgages.

Also, keep in mind, the the media is not in the business of reporting the news, they're in the business of selling advertising. Thus, they're a poor source for info.
 
The CEO's of the banks that are insolvent, Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan.
 
I'll give you my quick and dirty understanding, divided up in a few broad sections - housing crisis, mortgage crisis, investment banking. But FIRST, what it means for you. If you want a good media commentator on this, read Paul Krugman's columns in the NY Times. He's a giant in the economics world, he can write, and trade and economic crises are his particular specialty.

What it means for you
1) Businesses that depend on the housing industry are screwed. Businesses that need access to easy money or borrowed capital are hosed. Businesses that depend on importing stuff from the rest of the world are f*ck*d. Businesses that work on a cash basis, or who make stuff for export, are generally better off.
2) Rent, don't buy, until house prices reach a level where you could move out, then pay the mortgage by renting to someone else.
3) Avoid personal debt - credit cards, etc - like the plague.

Topic 1: Housing Prices
1) You can do two things with a house: you can rent it or live in it (and "pay rent to yourself" at the same time that you're buying the underlying asset).
2) The price of housing has been going up, partly because of low interest rates (so carrying a mortgage is easier) and low energy costs (so heating, power, and transportation are cheap, in turn partly caused by an overvalued USD.)
3) The other part is speculation, since, with low interest rates, housing became a "good investment" rather than a "place to live". Since the late 90's, people have been treating their houses as their retirement funds (!!!)
4) This cycle where low costs beget speculation, which begets more speculation, ratchets prices upwards.
5) Nationally, prices are now between 100% and 80% more than what would be supported by the prevailing local rental rate (historically, about 20x annual rent for an equivalent dwelling).
6) We no longer have the upwards pressure of low interest and energy costs causing the ratchet upwards, so the market is "correcting" itself.

Topic 2: Mortgage Crisis
1) Most people don't pay for real estate with cash. They take out a loan with a bank.
2) Rather than holding the mortgage, banks then packaged up mortgages and sold some of them as bonds, getting the value of their principal back and enabling them to make more loans, make more money, etc. They also keep some.
3) As the price of houses goes down, people are defaulting/being foreclosed on. This drives the value of the bond downwards, because the interest is no longer being paid AND the underlying asset can't be liquidated at nearly the price that it was "booked" at.
4) Nobody knows where the housing market's going to crater, so this uncertainty is being priced into the bonds, because no one wants to be the idiot who bought into a falling market and lost their shirt before lunch.
5) Accounting rules ("mark to market") state that the value of these bonds is the CURRENT selling price. So companies owning these bonds (including the depository banks themselves) are suddenly worth a whole lot less than they thought they were.
6) These rules also forced the Treasury to re-nationalize Freddie and Fannie. If Freddie or Fannie went under, they'd have to liquidate their assets, pushing a huge amount of bonds on the market, driving the price further down (since there's no ready money available to buy them up) and screwing everyone with any exposure to the market, even 2nd or 3rd hand (you own part of A, who owns part of B, who owns part of C ... if C goes under, A and B are screwed too).
7) In the example above, A, B, and C are all screwed because financial co's are "highly leveraged" - they owe and are owed a high multiple of what they hold in ready cash. So a small dip can turn into a major crisis, by wiping out the ready cash. (ie, if you have $1 in your pocket, are owed $10, and owe $10, you're a bank. If what you are owed is now worth $8.99, but you still owe $10, you're totally wiped out. This is why loan sharks are such happy-go-lucky, forgiving, genuinely nice people.)

Topic 3: Investment Banks
1) Investment banks (Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Lehman etc) are regulated really differently than depository banks.
2) Investment banks have been chasing higher returns by betting the firm's money as well as the clients'.
3) When the value of the firm's assets drops, the value of the firm drops, and Merrill, Bear, Lehman were all caught in that kind of collapse. A public i-bank can't live for long with falling stock prices, because they'll lose all their clients, who have no desire to get screwed.
4) This is complicated by "counterparty risk" - if A makes a trade with B, and B goes under while the trade is pending, A might be screwed. That's why the treasury is involved, to make sure that the counterparties (and therefore the entire system) don't get screwed.
5) Like in 7) above, i-banks are highly leveraged. They're even more highly leveraged than depository banks. So they're extra-sensitive to (relatively) small fluctuations in the value of their assets.

Hope that this makes things a little easier to understand! It's tough. I suffered through 2 years of this stuff in b-school, and it's still tough to piece out.
 
Not a bad summery Marco except you forgot to say it was all ***** fault :p
 
I'll give you my quick and dirty understanding, divided up in a few broad sections - housing crisis, mortgage crisis, investment banking. But FIRST, what it means for you. If you want a good media commentator on this, read Paul Krugman's columns in the NY Times. He's a giant in the economics world, he can write, and trade and economic crises are his particular specialty.

What it means for you
1) Businesses that depend on the housing industry are screwed. Businesses that need access to easy money or borrowed capital are hosed. Businesses that depend on importing stuff from the rest of the world are f*ck*d. Businesses that work on a cash basis, or who make stuff for export, are generally better off.
2) Rent, don't buy, until house prices reach a level where you could move out, then pay the mortgage by renting to someone else.
3) Avoid personal debt - credit cards, etc - like the plague.

Topic 1: Housing Prices
1) You can do two things with a house: you can rent it or live in it (and "pay rent to yourself" at the same time that you're buying the underlying asset).
2) The price of housing has been going up, partly because of low interest rates (so carrying a mortgage is easier) and low energy costs (so heating, power, and transportation are cheap, in turn partly caused by an overvalued USD.)
3) The other part is speculation, since, with low interest rates, housing became a "good investment" rather than a "place to live". Since the late 90's, people have been treating their houses as their retirement funds (!!!)
4) This cycle where low costs beget speculation, which begets more speculation, ratchets prices upwards.
5) Nationally, prices are now between 100% and 80% more than what would be supported by the prevailing local rental rate (historically, about 20x annual rent for an equivalent dwelling).
6) We no longer have the upwards pressure of low interest and energy costs causing the ratchet upwards, so the market is "correcting" itself.

Topic 2: Mortgage Crisis
1) Most people don't pay for real estate with cash. They take out a loan with a bank.
2) Rather than holding the mortgage, banks then packaged up mortgages and sold some of them as bonds, getting the value of their principal back and enabling them to make more loans, make more money, etc. They also keep some.
3) As the price of houses goes down, people are defaulting/being foreclosed on. This drives the value of the bond downwards, because the interest is no longer being paid AND the underlying asset can't be liquidated at nearly the price that it was "booked" at.
4) Nobody knows where the housing market's going to crater, so this uncertainty is being priced into the bonds, because no one wants to be the idiot who bought into a falling market and lost their shirt before lunch.
5) Accounting rules ("mark to market") state that the value of these bonds is the CURRENT selling price. So companies owning these bonds (including the depository banks themselves) are suddenly worth a whole lot less than they thought they were.
6) These rules also forced the Treasury to re-nationalize Freddie and Fannie. If Freddie or Fannie went under, they'd have to liquidate their assets, pushing a huge amount of bonds on the market, driving the price further down (since there's no ready money available to buy them up) and screwing everyone with any exposure to the market, even 2nd or 3rd hand (you own part of A, who owns part of B, who owns part of C ... if C goes under, A and B are screwed too).
7) In the example above, A, B, and C are all screwed because financial co's are "highly leveraged" - they owe and are owed a high multiple of what they hold in ready cash. So a small dip can turn into a major crisis, by wiping out the ready cash. (ie, if you have $1 in your pocket, are owed $10, and owe $10, you're a bank. If what you are owed is now worth $8.99, but you still owe $10, you're totally wiped out. This is why loan sharks are such happy-go-lucky, forgiving, genuinely nice people.)

Topic 3: Investment Banks
1) Investment banks (Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Lehman etc) are regulated really differently than depository banks.
2) Investment banks have been chasing higher returns by betting the firm's money as well as the clients'.
3) When the value of the firm's assets drops, the value of the firm drops, and Merrill, Bear, Lehman were all caught in that kind of collapse. A public i-bank can't live for long with falling stock prices, because they'll lose all their clients, who have no desire to get screwed.
4) This is complicated by "counterparty risk" - if A makes a trade with B, and B goes under while the trade is pending, A might be screwed. That's why the treasury is involved, to make sure that the counterparties (and therefore the entire system) don't get screwed.
5) Like in 7) above, i-banks are highly leveraged. They're even more highly leveraged than depository banks. So they're extra-sensitive to (relatively) small fluctuations in the value of their assets.

Hope that this makes things a little easier to understand! It's tough. I suffered through 2 years of this stuff in b-school, and it's still tough to piece out.

OK, that clears up some of my confusion. Now for the question I can't seem to find an answer to anywhere:

How does this affect someone like me and TheWife©?

Traditional mortgage, payment we can afford, not moving within the next 10 years (probably), modest traditional savings (which is changing next year once we reach the "magic number" to open a more favorable account), 401k and Roth IRA with long term investment strategies, and modest debt at locked in rates (car loan).

How does this affect us other than it being a bit worrisome? It seems by your summary that it really doesn't have an effect on us other than making possible future debt more expensive. Is this a correct assumption?

(I really appreciate the help here. I just can't believe I can't find straightforward explanations elsewhere.)
 
The Government is going to bailout AIG with 85 Billion of our tax dollars so that will help settle things a bit but it ain't over yet IMHO.
 
The Government is going to bailout AIG with 85 Billion of our tax dollars so that will help settle things a bit but it ain't over yet IMHO.

No, but that is a common misconception. The Federal Reserve is in talks to bailout AIG, not the federal government. The Federal Reserve is not a part of the federal government. The Federal Reserve is a private corporate entity!!!
 
The Government is going to bailout AIG with 85 Billion of our tax dollars so that will help settle things a bit but it ain't over yet IMHO.

No, but that is a common misconception. The Federal Reserve is in talks to bailout AIG, not the federal government. The Federal Reserve is not a part of the federal government. The Federal Reserve is a private corporate entity!!!

Actually it is a Quasi-government agency in that it is a public institution that has private components to it. So technically, this is the government bailing them out through the Federal Reserve.
 
Well.......since Congress authorized them in 1913 they are serving at the bequest of the Government but I do see your point.
 
How does this affect us other than it being a bit worrisome? It seems by your summary that it really doesn't have an effect on us other than making possible future debt more expensive. Is this a correct assumption?

Well, it will have an effect on you in the long term, but it sounds like you have your house in order. I can identify a few things that might cause concern.

1) Future debt is both personal and commercial. Your employers, yours and your wife's, may go through financial hard times. By making commercial debt difficult to obtain, it can discourage reinvestment, stopping productivity gains and putting businesses under extreme stress (see Japan's Lost Decade for a particularly chilling example). Be willing to jump.
2) The housing correction affects you, because you may not be able to get money out of the house. Don't look at your house as an investment; in a declining market, you're essentially paying rent.
3) Save inasmuch as you can, and diversify; don't put your investable savings in the same industry that you work in, much less the same company. It reduces risk as sectors are only partly correlated with each other.

Sorry to not paint a happier picture :-( . From your description, you're doing everything right. It's like the boom years, except in reverse - in a boom, everyone is a genius; in a deflationary spiral (which I certainly hope that this is not), everyone gets screwed.
 
The Government is going to bailout AIG with 85 Billion of our tax dollars so that will help settle things a bit but it ain't over yet IMHO.

No, but that is a common misconception. The Federal Reserve is in talks to bailout AIG, not the federal government. The Federal Reserve is not a part of the federal government. The Federal Reserve is a private corporate entity!!!

Actually it is a Quasi-government agency in that it is a public institution that has private components to it. So technically, this is the government bailing them out through the Federal Reserve.

That's right! I was mistaken in it being a private corporate entity. But, it behaves almost completely as such in the fact that it has the power to act on it's own without prior approval from Congress, and the fact that it generates revenue independently without the need for Congressional funding.

I can admit when I'm wrong.... sorta! :p
 
Well.......since Congress authorized them in 1913 they are serving at the bequest of the Government but I do see your point.

Well, since the Federal Reserve can issue currency, they're not using tax dollars. :)

By the way - 90 day LIBOR + 850 basis points?????? I get a better rate than that on my credit card.
 
I haven't seen the basis points but I hope you can do better then that on your card.
 
I haven't seen the basis points but I hope you can do better then that on your card.

Here it is: link

LIBOR + 850 points = 11.31% annualized. Extra interesting that they're using LIBOR (link)rather than the Fed discount window rate, although perhaps LIBOR is the better measure for an interbank loan after all. Also curious that the Fed couldn't get any member banks to hold the stake rather than issuing it itself (it tried to get a consortium headed by JPM organized yesterday). If AIG survives, the fed is going to turn a very tidy profit indeed.
 
People owe too much on too little.

KIS(S)

This is a very concise summary. As a result, there will be less money to lend, and prices will drop on the things people commonly buy with debt.

The Government is going to bailout AIG with 85 Billion of our tax dollars so that will help settle things a bit but it ain't over yet IMHO.

No, but that is a common misconception. The Federal Reserve is in talks to bailout AIG, not the federal government. The Federal Reserve is not a part of the federal government. The Federal Reserve is a private corporate entity!!!

While this is true, and the Fed actually issues debt underwritten (mostly) by US Treasuries, the press release is carefully worded to say the "Federal Reserve Board, with the full support of the US Treasury Department". So ultimately, the deal is backed by the US Govt.

And I commend your desire to educate yourself on how all of this works. Most people have no conceptual grasp of the fractional reserve monetary system.

Here are some sites that I have used. Caution, these are decidedly bearish sites and are not for the faint of heart:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
 
How does this affect us other than it being a bit worrisome? It seems by your summary that it really doesn't have an effect on us other than making possible future debt more expensive. Is this a correct assumption?

Well, it will have an effect on you in the long term, but it sounds like you have your house in order. I can identify a few things that might cause concern.

1) Future debt is both personal and commercial. Your employers, yours and your wife's, may go through financial hard times. By making commercial debt difficult to obtain, it can discourage reinvestment, stopping productivity gains and putting businesses under extreme stress (see Japan's Lost Decade for a particularly chilling example). Be willing to jump.
2) The housing correction affects you, because you may not be able to get money out of the house. Don't look at your house as an investment; in a declining market, you're essentially paying rent.
3) Save inasmuch as you can, and diversify; don't put your investable savings in the same industry that you work in, much less the same company. It reduces risk as sectors are only partly correlated with each other.

Sorry to not paint a happier picture :-( . From your description, you're doing everything right. It's like the boom years, except in reverse - in a boom, everyone is a genius; in a deflationary spiral (which I certainly hope that this is not), everyone gets screwed.

Well, it sounds like we may ride this out better than some folks will.

TheWife© works in health care which is one of the largest and most stable industries in our area (we're the "regional center of commerce" for this part of the state).

Our house is a place to live for us (not an investment) and the housing market has been fairly stable in our neck of the woods, especially in the price range our house lies in. We also had a good bit of equity in the house from the start.

We save what we can while enjoying life (we could always pinch a few more pennies, but who couldn't?) and the retirement funds are pretty diversified.

Thanks for all the info. It's been most helpful. Hopefully I'm not the only one that had questions. If so, it wouldn't be the first time I was the ignorant one in the room. :)
 
All of the banks and investment brokers did everything that ANY Finance counselor will tell you NOT to do.

<<<<<<<<<<< RANT >>>>>>>>>>>
They chased earnings and followed hot items that were giving outrageous earnings on inflated data. Then they put all their eggs in one basket and leveraged it even further. Just so they could look like they were earning 1% more so it would not look like their competitors were doing better than them.
Then someone went over their books, agreed with them that IF this company kept up at the remarkable pace then it Would be worth the inflated price they were paying for Future earnings. Then they shake hands and sign their ledgers and pretend that their house of cards is as sturdy as they come.

<<<<<<<<<< END RANT >>>>>>>>>>>

I believe I am in the same room as you are financially, I may be just too dumb to understand it all, but that is how I see it. I think things may be tight for 12-18 months but in our position we should not let media scare us with its fanatacism, that is how the market moves (both ways) so they can turn a moving market into money while having no real product.


I will accept any CONSTRUCTIVE criticism of my viewpoint.
 
Top