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FDA Decimation- Who's Left Standing?

mjolnir01

mjolnir01

El Cañón de Latón
Joined
Jun 1, 2008
Messages
2,713
Location
Newnan, Georgia
First Name
Barry
Assuming worst case scenario and the FDA regulates cigars beginning in August as planned under Option 1, we know a lot of post Aug 2007 brands and blends will be unavailable until they can accomplish testing. Who's left standing in your humidor--non-Habanos--during that interim period?

I know I'm stocking up on Illusione Epernays and other post-'07 Illusione stuff, but I'm partially relieved that the "Original Documents" corojos will still be available, with possible exception of the MJ12 & ~33~. Who else?

Fuente - will have a lot available, but I'm not much of a Fuente-whore
Padron - Classics, Anniversary 1964s, and 1926 Series should still be good
Casa Fernandez - core line should be alright too, but I'm not sure about much else there
Oliva - I think the Serie V squeaks in, but the Melanio will be effected
La Flor Dominicana - Ligeros, DLs, LG Diez, and Cameroon Cabs should be okay
Tatuaje - Brown labels, Havana VIs, maybe black... sorry special edition seekers, I don't see the Halloween series surviving this at all

I really shudder to think that Warped, RoMa Craft, Crux, Caldwell, and Crowned Heads--just to name a few--will be completely reduced to what's already out in inventory as this gets worked out. That means they could be gone for a while.
 
If Option 1 goes through, they may be given a window of time to comply before they are locked out.
 
I remain unconvinced in our doomsday events as of now, particularly because of the lack of hemming and hawing by our brothers in Miami (other than the occasional op-ed piece). To me this means things behind the scenes are functioning, but I can't be sure.

Personally, I'd stock up on the Illusione, a few Warped brands, and probably Roma and Caldwell but not more than maybe a box of each. Not sure that I'd survive the wrath of my wife beyond that. But who knows. Perhaps a black market of our own tobacco products will come into effect with this rule.

Should they make it illegal for me to smoke a cigar, I'll most certainly end up an outlaw.
 
Thanks for doing some legwork. I've been curious on this line of thought, but too busy to look up release dates, etc. A lot of my favorites will survive, but some of those like Roma, Caldwell, and Crowned heads I still haven't smoked. I'm very hopeful that 1. Premium Cigars are struck from the issue, and 2. At minimum, the 2007 date gets trashed.
 
Keep in mind that any of the newer brands can submit for testing.

Also, even the brands that existed prior to 2007 may have to go through testing. The FDA stated that any time there is a substantial change in packaging they will count it as a new product. So for example, Avo and Camacho did some re-branding to some older blends. FDA sees that as a new item and so will not allow them to count them as having met the 2007 predicate date.

We don't know how much it will cost for brands to submit their applications. It sounds like the better selling brands plan on submit applications. When I spoke with the Ashton rep, he indicated he wasn't worried about. But in the end we, the consumer, will be paying those additional costs.

We also don't know how long it will take the FDA to approve things. This is the part that I worry about. I think I heard that since 2007 the FDA has received 40,000 applications for cigarette related stuff. During that time they have only process a few hundred of these applications. The rest are in limbo. It's death by inaction. That would suck if they did that to cigars.
 
Steve Saka, Nick from DE, EPC cigars, Kafie (nice smokes) could get into trouble. Those are the few I can think of off the top of my head. I like all of their smokes.
 
Hmmm, this is an amusing angle. While I am still a bit optimistic about how this is going to go, as consumers we may have some legal remedies if the FDA knocks stuff off the shelves. Wouldn't most of the Aging Room stuff be hurt? That's one that came to mind for me.
 
Aging Room is certainly post 2007. So they would need to file an application as a "new" product and go through full testing. No clue if they would or not.
 
First off everyone will have 2 yrs to continue selling there cigars, then 1 additional yr if they have submitted to the FDA. Also, the group that is out now or before August 5th will be able to file as "substantial equivalent", what that means in the FUFDA parlance is anyone's guess however.

Judicial relief is questionable at best and putting faith in Legi-critters worries me even more, depending on the outcome of this current election could be the best relief possible for us.
 
Our Local herf was an event by Perdomo. The rep said don't sweat 2007, it's the original date of when the stuff started. Said anything before this August was going to be OK, and that there will be a plethora of new stuff because of packaging. So there could be 7 packs, any combo you can think of just to make it into the August deadline. Matter of fact he said there will be stuff out with limited quantities, maybe for practical purposes or testing stick, but the magic is because of August, but just so they squeak in before August

Said there was no funding available to the FDA to do this stuff and everything before August was in ( that's what he said ). Also said there are a bunch in Congress that favor no action on cigars, they are staying quiet for now.

This is what HE said. Very optimistic on things being positive for us. Also said the Show in Vegas was going to be full of surprises just because the the possible new laws. Didn't know for a fact what Perdomo was going to do, but said there are four new products coming out. Nothing about packaging. Did mentions the age change to 21 to get that away from parental uneasiness.

So, I don't think any of us KNOW, but we remain hopeful. I sure as heck am, I'm still wet behind the ears with way too many to try yet.
 
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Optimistic with Pug's post, but I don't think I'm smoking anything that was around in 2007. LFD La Nox, Liga 9, Undercrown, Nica Rustica, KFC, La Aroma de Cuba, Cromagnon...
 
Pugman1943 said:
Our Local herf was an event by Perdomo. The rep said don't sweat 2007, it's the original date of when the stuff started. Said anything before this August was going to be OK, and that there will be a plethora of new stuff because of packaging. So there could be 7 packs, any combo you can think of just to make it into the August deadline. Matter of fact he said there will be stuff out with limited quantities, maybe for practical purposes or testing stick, but the magic is because of August, but just so they squeak in before August

Said there was no funding available to the FDA to do this stuff and everything before August was in ( that's what he said ). Also said there are a bunch in Congress that favor no action on cigars, they are staying quiet for now.

This is what HE said. Very optimistic on things being positive for us. Also said the Show in Vegas was going to be full of surprises just because the the possible new laws. Didn't know for a fact what Perdomo was going to do, but said there are four new products coming out. Nothing about packaging. Did mentions the age change to 21 to get that away from parental uneasiness.

So, I don't think any of us KNOW, but we remain hopeful. I sure as heck am, I'm still wet behind the ears with way too many to try yet.
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I've seen it written over and over that the 2007 date is the weakest part of these regulations. The Perdomo guy's perspective on it seems to be about right. While litigation moves at the pace of a glacier, the arbitrary and preferential setting of a date so long ago is just not going to make it through the commerce clause and other kinds of similar arguments. "Hey, Fuente-Padron-General-Altadis, you guys have been around forever so you're okay but let's crush your newer competition. Bye bye Aging Room-LP-AlecBradley". Federal judges would take a dim view of regulating away legitimately the same product made by newer companies.

Interesting stuff about the new items that are going to be forthcoming. I hope manufacturers don't rush tobacco to market that isn't ready for the market. My guess is that they will. I mean is the FDA going to monitor whether its Nicaraguan tobacco versus 2 year old Nicaraguan tobacco?
 
punk_lawyer said:
I've seen it written over and over that the 2007 date is the weakest part of these regulations. The Perdomo guy's perspective on it seems to be about right. While litigation moves at the pace of a glacier, the arbitrary and preferential setting of a date so long ago is just not going to make it through the commerce clause and other kinds of similar arguments. "Hey, Fuente-Padron-General-Altadis, you guys have been around forever so you're okay but let's crush your newer competition. Bye bye Aging Room-LP-AlecBradley". Federal judges would take a dim view of regulating away legitimately the same product made by newer companies.

Interesting stuff about the new items that are going to be forthcoming. I hope manufacturers don't rush tobacco to market that isn't ready for the market. My guess is that they will. I mean is the FDA going to monitor whether its Nicaraguan tobacco versus 2 year old Nicaraguan tobacco?
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My favorite parallel is the gun bans in this country.

1994 we had an assault weapon (huh?) ban go in place.
Ruger pushed for the banning of black guns because AR-15 sales were killing their Mini-14.
Same caliber, same capacity, but lacked evil features. (Black, bayonet lug, collapsible stock, and pistol grip)

Smith and Wesson gave in on the handgun side. Which limited pistols to 10 round mags, required locks be sold with the handguns, and even build the locks into them.

The bigs will kill the littles, and sell us out in the process to keep from hurting themselves.

Just think of the market share the bigs stand to gain by all of the boutiques going Tango Uniform.

It is truly scary to think that walk-in humidors will be scaled down to a reach-in selection.
 
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One can only hope he has some influence going forward and Rocky has done his job well.
 
MichaelD said:
Keep in mind that any of the newer brands can submit for testing.

Also, even the brands that existed prior to 2007 may have to go through testing. The FDA stated that any time there is a substantial change in packaging they will count it as a new product. So for example, Avo and Camacho did some re-branding to some older blends. FDA sees that as a new item and so will not allow them to count them as having met the 2007 predicate date.

Michael, you bring up a question, substantial change in packaging. Could the mfg's change back their packaging to pre '07 and be exempt ?

Don't know if that is possible, but a fair question maybe?
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golfgar said:
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One can only hope he has some influence going forward and Rocky has done his job well.
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Halfwheel had an informative article on what the election meant. Basically any hopes of getting the cigar exemption passed in the Ag bill died. If Clinton won congress may have passed it before she had a chance to influence the bill. Now they will start from scratch and so who know what will happen. Pence also has connections with big tobacco which is against the exemption because having smaller brands go out of business is better for big tobacco. How that will influence stuff, who knows.

As a side note, Ed quoted me on the whole packaging issue. This has now been resolved in that manufactures can change packaging without issues. They can't change how many cigars are in a box though without having to go through re-certification.
 
Halfwheel just made me think of a growing trend after seeing a couple of these on their site..."(Cigar Company) set to make limited edition (Cigar) part of regular production". Already seeing plenty of examples with Illusione alone.
 
Look, logic and reason have never gotten in the way of the government before, why should it start now.

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