Is So. Fla. gonna catch a break anytime soon?

[MiamiCubano]

Ok. Charley was one thing. Then came Frances. That absolutely sucked, even though the truly worst thing I got out of it was cabin fever. Now we have a Cat 5 barrelling straight at us. :angry: Can't hurricane season give it a rest? I mean, 3 in the last roughly 30 days?

Anyone heard from our fellow Coast-Guard BOTL in Key West? Hope all is well. For that matter, hope all is well with all our brothers, sisters and family in South Florida. Good luck. While I don't want to wish disaster on someone else, let's hope this thing misses us altogether.

 

[geldor1]

Amen to that. :thumbs:

 

[AVB]

The 5 day track from NOAA makes it look like Ivan is going to go straight up Tampa Bay. Ivan

 

[MiamiCubano]

The 5 day track from NOAA makes it look like Ivan is going to go straight up Tampa Bay. Ivan

That's a slightly different projection than I saw this morning. In fact, that projection really looks like it places landfall back around the Lee County (Ft. Myers, Naples, Port Charlotte) area. Tampa Bay and St. Petersburg a bit further north. I hope to God that's not the case though for Charlotte County. They have been through enough with Charley.

 

[stogieman]

I have the same feeling there brother cause both Charley & Frances came right through Central Florida and The 6:00 am new is showing a repeat of Charley. I'm not a big religious man but, God help us...... :0

 

[rnccen]

I am watching this also....Tampa Bay no Tampa bay..I have seen 6 tracking forcasts from various agencies that have it all over Florida and the Gulf...essentially until it is upon the area it will hit...no one knows...the good news is though that it is to down grade to a Cat 2 by that time.

P

 

[Muley]

I am watching this also....Tampa Bay no Tampa bay..I have seen 6 tracking forcasts from various agencies that have it all over Florida and the Gulf...essentially until it is upon the area it will hit...no one knows...the good news is though that it is to down grade to a Cat 2 by that time.

P

This will definitely hit Gulf side but may be anywhere from Biloxi to Naples.

The last time we had a storm take this track with similar atmospheric conditions was in 1997 - Georges (I think) and it went right over Biloxi.

My forecast this morning was for a Tampa landfall around 14/12Z but I'm leaning more towards a panhandle event now (right around 15/00Z.) I just don't think the Gulf trough will be very influential. By the way, that's the key - if the trough breaks down (not too likely-but still possible) then this thing could end up over Biloxi, just a weakening trough will push it into the Florida panhandle. There's been pretty good consensus in the models though, so Florida is still the safe forecast. But I don't forecast for my own safety...

Don't count on category 2 yet. As soon as Ivan turns, it's going to rip across Cuba straight into the Gulf. While it'll be moving fast enough to weaken, the Warmer waters of the Gulf will offset some of the weakening. The sustained winds may get close to (or even slightly into) the CAT 2 range, but the gusts and storm surge will be well into the CAT 3 range and will set up a hellatious longshore current S-N in Florida. The more parallel (and obviously, closer) to the coast this thing runs, the more damage we'll see to the coast this time (washed away beach, flooded coastal towns, etc.)

Luckily there's not much fetch between Cuba and Florida so the sea height will not be able to grow much higher than CAT 3 range unless the trough transiting the US breaks down and Ivan sits under a nice upper level high in the Gulf for a couple of days.

BTW, the lates forecast tracks are not good news for Tampa. If this follows the tracks from this evening, Tampa could most of the surge full on, and as you Floridians know, the storm surge IS the most damaging aspect of a hurricane/typhoon.

Sea heights in feet (satellite verified)

Multisensor imagery

 

[Lee]

Yeah, you Florida folks could use a break! Stay safe!

I'm worried about this thing coming up the east coast! We can't take anymore rain and wind here in Va.

After Izzy last year and then Gaston, I've about had enough of this s$@*!!! :angry: