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Cuban Cigars

G

gawntrail

New Member
Joined
Feb 25, 2004
Messages
872
Location
Moreno Valley, CA
So I stop by a new smoke shop close to the school I teach at on the way home from practice tonight. I've been in there a couple of times, struck up interesting conversation with the owner.................and he's a pretty good dude.

I gifted a couple of San Cristobals and Vegas Robaina Cubans to him and I'm one of his best buddies now. His shop is a cigarette shop with a bitchin' 8' X 12' walkin humi. He's got the usual midline stuff and we talk and smoke for awhile tonight. I asked him how the cubans were I gave him and he tells me how good they were. Then he hits me with this.

According to his ALTADIS Rep (I guess that's the company that holds the future rights to distribute Cubans in the US when that happens), there is some sort of legislation in the works (and has legs) that will lift the ban on Cuban tobacco products. I was very sceptical, but didn't want to sound too cynical....he even tried to reach the guy on his cell to convince me he wasn't just talkin trash. He phoned him on the speaker phone, but no dice, just got his voicemail......and yeah, It said "Hi, this is Joe Blow, southwestern regional rep for Altadis USA".

Anyways.............do any of you guys know anything about this?? Is this just the stroke job to keep a guy buying their product, or is this something with some truth to it. Is this supposed legislation piggy-backed on to something that might actually get some action??

I'm not real sure what to think?? I know the overt stance toward Cuba, Fidel, and the glorious people's revolution, but what is the skinny??

Heard this, and thought I'd pass it on for you guys to ponder/comment on.

M. Gipson
 
I spoke to a guy on the metro (DC's subway) who was looking over a State Department report regarding Cuba. He said that the gist of it was how the US would respond after the Castro regime was out. The feeling was that within the next 5 years Castro would die or his right hand man (who runs the military and equivelent to the CIA) would die as well. In either case they felt that when that happens Cuba could be opened up again. He also said nobody was in a rush until that happened, but they are ready for when it does happen. Patience... :lookup:
 
Milton said:
I spoke to a guy on the metro (DC's subway) who was looking over a State Department report regarding Cuba. He said that the gist of it was how the US would respond after the Castro regime was out. The feeling was that within the next 5 years Castro would die or his right hand man (who runs the military and equivelent to the CIA) would die as well. In either case they felt that when that happens Cuba could be opened up again. He also said nobody was in a rush until that happened, but they are ready for when it does happen. Patience... :lookup:
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Thank you Milton.

I guess breaking Federal Law until then is in order :p

And you know............Cigars are small time compared to what kind of money will be made on the island once it is opened up. I'm going to have my broker do some research on what may pop when that happens.

M. Gipson
 
I don't think it will be anytime soon Bro!! :angry:

The way I understand it is that the man running the military is Castro's brother and the next in line to rule. :lookup:

On top of that, ricmac posted recently that the US has gotten even tighter with the travel restrictions for those who were allowed to travel...i.e. his parents are now restricted from traveling as they once did.

No big deal, the quality is up and the cost is not bad if you are using the right vedor. And I feel the QUALITY will be a big concern if they start producing enough smokes to cover the US along with what they produce now for the rest of the world. Just my .02 cents

As far as travel to Cuba......There are ways to get there and back with not much stress :sneaky: :D
 
I see it as a lose-lose. If they are lifted, then the amount of smokes being produced will go up and quality will suffer. Or they stay at the same amound of smokes and the prices go up because of the shortage. Either way I'm fine with who I order with for now :thumbs:
 
STYX&STONED said:
No big deal, the quality is up and the cost is not bad if you are using the right vedor. And I feel the QUALITY will be a big concern if they start producing enough smokes to cover the US along with what they produce now for the rest of the world. Just my .02 cents
Click to expand...
Not only that, but I'm sure like everything else that is a hit, the price would go up considerably, to get all the money they could from us Americans. Every bar around and upscale shop would carry the "new" legal Cubans, and would charge a hefty premium. It's easy enough to get them and probably a lot cheaper than if they lifted the ban.
 
STYX&STONED said:
The way I understand it is that the man running the military is Castro's brother and the next in line to rule. :lookup:
Click to expand...
The guy is Castro's brother. :( The good news is that he is Castro's brother and just as old :D

Like I said the report was looking to a new regime in the next 5 years.

I would expect Cuba to reclaim her island paradise she held before the embargo. It will take money and work, but I would expect it to clean up as far as tourism goes and be the crown jewel of the caribbean.

That is an excellent point about the quality Styx. Americans will go stupid for Cuban cigars (even if they don't smoke) just because they can. I am thinking about pulling a CC and stockpiling Embargo Cubans to last the craze :lookup: That way you can sell "Real Embargo Cubans" or "Real Pre-UnEmbargo Cubans" or whatever they are gonna be called :sign:
 
STYX&STONED said:
QUALITY will be a big concern if they start producing enough smokes to cover the US along with what they produce now for the rest of the world. Just my .02 cents
Click to expand...
I've wondered about that as well. Then again, Cuban are distributed just about everywhere, so adding the US cause that much trouble?

I think there'd be a initial hit as soon as the ban was dropped as everyone rushed out to try a cuban or 2, but after that hit, I wounder how what actual demand would be? Maybe the cheaper machine made smokes would see a rise in demand because of the price, but those would probably be the easiest to increase production.

...I hope some of that made since. :D

Nic Templeton
Seattle WA
 
texasaggie said:
[
Click to expand...
Not only that, but I'm sure like everything else that is a hit, the price would go up considerably, to get all the money they could from us Americans. Every bar around and upscale shop would carry the "new" legal Cubans, and would charge a hefty premium. It's easy enough to get them and probably a lot cheaper than if they lifted the ban.

[/QUOTE]
Maybe... What is for sure however is that the cost of other great cigars will decrease :thumbs:

Jim
 
I fully intend to have about a five year supply before this happens. I figure five years worth is the most I could reasonably (ha! reasonably) afford to keep on hand, and that if there are problems, they'll be sorted out by then or never.

Assuming this doesn't happen in the next two years, I'll be ready and waiting. :p
 
Wildcard said:
I fully intend to have about a five year supply before this happens. I figure five years worth is the most I could reasonably (ha! reasonably) afford to keep on hand, and that if there are problems, they'll be sorted out by then or never.

Assuming this doesn't happen in the next two years, I'll be ready and waiting. :p
Click to expand...
As it is now, I only smoke about 2-3 cubans a month. So that box of Partagas Serie D #4s will last me about 9 months........say 6 months with some sharing. So I need about 8-10 boxes..............and at $175 a box........that's $1400-$1750.

Now..........how do I rationalize that to Mrs. Gawntrail?? :(

Everyone brings up good points. Personally, 6 months.......1 year......5 years what's the difference? But, I thought it was interesting. I'm glad I got your responses.

**Side note**
Preliminary research shows an acute rise in pharmaceuticals, vitamins, red meat consumption, and bottled water use. A slow down turn in sugar prices, and a definite surge of tech stocks, aerospace stocks, and refining equipment company stocks. All in the first 6 months.

Longer term profits would come from gaming, HMOs, tourism, Airport services, Seaport services, and quite possibly a Major League Baseball team.

If MLB relocates/expands into Mexico City like it is rumored to do, then it is not a big step to then also consider the Dominican Republic and Cuba. And what about the MLS? Soccer is huge.......... And you know the Olympics would show up in Havana within 5 years.

Cuba would most definitely return to being the jewel of the Carribean. And probably within 6-7 years after the lifting of the Embargo to boot. Talk about economic recovery..........People are going to get FAT when that happens.

The more I think of this, the more I'd better look into this. This sounds like a wave of profits that people can get in on if they get their ducks in a row early.

M. Gipson
 
You're right about the expense, gt, but I don't have a Mrs. Wildcard. I intend to spend around five to seven grand on the stockpile. Perhaps I won't need that much, and if not, it isn't like they'll go bad. And regardless, that's about the amount of ISOMs I'd like to keep in the rotation. So instead of building it up in time, I'll get it all fairly fast.

EDIT- I rule at grammar!
 
Wildcard said:
You're right about the expense, gt, but I don't have a Mrs. Wildcard.
Click to expand...
So are you saying there is a MR. Wildcard?? :p (You walked right into that one ;) )

Makes sense to me.........Good luck on the stockpiling. At least now we all know whose bomb shelter will be the best stocked.
 
JWJ said:
texasaggie said:
[
Click to expand...
Not only that, but I'm sure like everything else that is a hit, the price would go up considerably, to get all the money they could from us Americans. Every bar around and upscale shop would carry the "new" legal Cubans, and would charge a hefty premium. It's easy enough to get them and probably a lot cheaper than if they lifted the ban.
Click to expand...
Maybe... What is for sure however is that the cost of other great cigars will decrease :thumbs:

Jim [/quote]
I don't know how much, how many times does something that is a premium non necessity item go down in price, once they go up, they almost always stay there. And I can't imagine what kind of taxes they'll impose, import fees and all. Once people get a taste of the money and know they can sell for alot more, because there's enough American's that will pay it, they'll never lower their prices.
 
texasaggie said:
JWJ said:
texasaggie said:
[
Click to expand...
Not only that, but I'm sure like everything else that is a hit, the price would go up considerably, to get all the money they could from us Americans. Every bar around and upscale shop would carry the "new" legal Cubans, and would charge a hefty premium. It's easy enough to get them and probably a lot cheaper than if they lifted the ban.
Click to expand...
Maybe... What is for sure however is that the cost of other great cigars will decrease :thumbs:

Jim
Click to expand...
I don't know how much, how many times does something that is a premium non necessity item go down in price, once they go up, they almost always stay there. And I can't imagine what kind of taxes they'll impose, import fees and all. Once people get a taste of the money and know they can sell for alot more, because there's enough American's that will pay it, they'll never lower their prices. [/quote]
I'm hearing ya texasaggie,

Two questions now..........

1) What happens to the Domestics that are using the same names as Cubans.......(ie Cohiba, Partagas, Montecristo, etc...)? and

2) What happens to the premium Domestics that are the crem de la crem......due to the absence of cubans in our market (ie Opus X, Davidoff, Padron Annys, etc..)?

It could go either way, but I would see a slow ramping down of prices for those #2 cigars (due to the non-existance of a forbidden fruit), and a sudden drop in the #1s (due to the court battles and subsequent award of name usage - Domestics using Cuban name branding would have to rename without the benefit of using the old name in the advertising - granted insider BOTLs would know the deal, but for most it would be like trying to call a friend but you only have his old number, and the forwarding has run out).

Problems ALTADIS won't run into because they own the Cuban names, but others like General Cigar et al will have to deal with.

Just some thoughts.

M. Gipson
 
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