New Year New Anticipations

[siriusstoogie]

If and when the embargo comes to an end, many here will agree that the demand for cubans cigars will go through the roof while supply will spiral down faster than the water in your toilet . Many also will agree that at least in the near term after the quality of said cuban cigars will go down until supply can catch up with the demand.

The US market will finally have legal access to these "precious" cigars. But I am not excited by this. After the dust settles down, the excitment for me comes from the anticipation of what creative blends the Fuente, Padron, Gomez, etc will come up with. Imagine a Between The Lines with a Cohiba filler, or an Ashton ESG wrapped in an Esplendido wrapper. a D4 wrapper filled with LFD DL filler. Dare I say, an Opus X blend with Bolivar Royal Corona wrapper. The possibilities are endless given the creative juices that these folks have.

Hey what do I know, just a Joe Schmo In the meantime, I am enjoying a lot of the Dominican, Nicaraguan 'Gars out there. They are very tasty, satisfying and enjoyable. :thumbs:

 

[Smoking Mex]

I would have to agree with you on the issue of the likely decline in quality of Habanos in the immediate future. Hopefully that is not a "turn off" for people who have never had one, and are eagerly awaiting to try one at the end of the embargo. As for the the idea of the cigar "super powers" uniting, even more interesting to see would be how the Padron's, Fuente's, and others improve on already great products to keep themselves ahead of the ISOM's once they hit the free market? That is in my Noob humble opinon...

 

[Black Plague]

I dread it exactly BECAUSE of the current non-Cuban producers.

Yeah, the quality might go down like it did during the Boom....but after a few years, once the newness and excitement wears off for casual US cigar consumers, quality will go back up to what it was (this is all assuming the Embargo were to end with Cuban tobacco still in the hands of one state-controlled entity, whether it's still called Cubatabaco or not).

So instead of charging around $20 a pop for a Dominican puro, Fuente can now charge you $40 because it's got......COOOOOOOOOBAN TOBACCO :love: :love: :love: .............in it. And Jesus....I don't even want to SEE what K. Hansotia & Co (the market leader in too many f'n lines on the market and too many over-priced dog rockets) is going to try to charge. We all laugh at this kind of dumb crap (CLICK HERE)...imagine what that thing's gonna cost once there's a shred of Havana tobacco in it.

But then again, on the bright side, we might see some good, not-insanely-priced blends on the market in the old pre-Castro "clear havana" style.

I don't buy the over-priced Fuente products like OpusX, because I honestly don't think they taste all that great (except maybe the Power Ranger) and there's much better sticks out there for much more reasonable prices (both CC and NC). If I get 'em in trades, then I just pass them on to BOTL who do like them. And I highly doubt I'll be buying the uber-expensive Fuente products once the embargo ends either.

 

[Saxjazzman]

I do agree with you. But I think that there are enough bad cubans out there that many people will get burnt not knowing what to buy. I see a lot of people buying anything Cuban and not realizing they are buying junk which will turn them off to Cubans.

Like you said, the real story of the embargo ending will be the new blending that is possible with Cuban tobacco. People like Rocky will have a field day pushing out new products. The trick for us will be to figure out which of the new blends with Cuban tobacco are worth the bucks because they will push a lot of garbage out there.

 

[AVB]

Not a great example BP since the cost of that is because of rareity and not because of the tobacco in it.

 

[grateful1]

If and when the embargo comes to an end, many here will agree that the demand for cubans cigars will go through the roof while supply will spiral down faster than the water in your toilet . Many also will agree that at least in the near term after the quality of said cuban cigars will go down until supply can catch up with the demand.

The US market will finally have legal access to these "precious" cigars. But I am not excited by this. After the dust settles down, the excitment for me comes from the anticipation of what creative blends the Fuente, Padron, Gomez, etc will come up with. Imagine a Between The Lines with a Cohiba filler, or an Ashton ESG wrapped in an Esplendido wrapper. a D4 wrapper filled with LFD DL filler. Dare I say, an Opus X blend with Bolivar Royal Corona wrapper. The possibilities are endless given the creative juices that these folks have.

Hey what do I know, just a Joe Schmo In the meantime, I am enjoying a lot of the Dominican, Nicaraguan 'Gars out there. They are very tasty, satisfying and enjoyable. :thumbs:

This is based on a premise that Cuba WILL allow the tobacco to be sold for blending AND others would want it.
Would it be nice to experiment, yes.
A non-US company can do that at this time...why haven't they? or have they?
Maybe it's been tried and just doesn't taste good...dunno!
Good food for thought. :thumbs:

 

[Ginseng]

Joe,

Your post is a stimulating one but also one that bears some additional clarification.

The first thing to realize is that although demand and supply are related, they are not always directly related. And in the case of Cuban cigars and the American market, the situation is even more complicated. I'd venture to say that the level of realized demand will not increase. That is, those who buy Habanos right now and at the levels they choose to, will in all likelihood not suddenly buy double what they're presently buying once the embargo is lifted.

However, it makes sense that there will be a huge surge in 1) curiosity demand, and 2) genuine persistent demand (budding Havanaphiles). But what about supply? Unless Cuba has been ramping up cultivation and stockpiling tobacco, and there are no indications that this is happening, the supply will remain essentially unchanged.

What then remains is how the existing supply will be redistributed. My belief is that cigars to supply the open American market will necessarily be pulled from exisiting markets. How would this happen? Through the mediating mechanism of price. Basically, the exhorbitant prices the newly unleashed American smoker of Habanos are willing to pay will be what will allow us to appropriate inventory that presently goes to Hunters&Frankau, Pacific Cigar Company, Intertabak, Fifth Avenue, Altadis (France and Spain), and the other Habanos regional distributors.

The additional complication is that the existing American underground market for Habanos draws their cigars from the world regions that will be pinched when supply is routed through legitimate channels in the United States! In other words, opening the U.S. market will create supply hardship for the existing Havanaphiles who will now have to start looking at new in-country sources for their addiction. Holy crap. The net effect will depend in part on how Habanos decides to split the supply for the existing (underground) U.S. consumers between their traditional ex-U.S. mail order supplies and the new in-U.S. direct distribution (b&m's and mailorder.)

Now as for blended cigars using Cuban and other tobaccos, it is my belief that when this occurs, it will not be until the U.S. market for the existing Habanos brands is developing. The issue, again, is tobacco supply. Even if Cuba does not turn into a free market overnight, foreign investment from the Padrons and Olivas would certainly provide leverage to swing some leaf for experimentation. But again, these won't see light of day until the additional demand in the the U.S. is at least partially satisfied and overall tobacco production has come back up to levels that provide a bit of relief for the other world regions that gave up inventory to feed the U.S.

I hope that when Cuba makes leaf available for blending that it will exercise extreme judgement and control over who gets to do it. Otherwise, we could have junk coming out with 1% Cuban leaf and potentially doing some serious damage to the prestige of Cuban leaf. One positive thing that would come out of blended products is that would be that bogus cigars like Pinar and A/R Robaina would be put out of our misery.

Wilkey

 

[Wurm]

I forsee me taking out a loan and making a trip to the Casa Del Puro and stocking up on the "Pre Post Embargo" Cuban cigars I like.

I am also of the opinion that the quality and prices are going to go to hell the first couple of years until supply and demand stabilizes.

 

[junkman_56]

I forsee me taking out a loan and making a trip to the Casa Del Puro and stocking up on the "Pre Post Embargo" Cuban cigars I like.

I am also of the opinion that the quality and prices are going to go to hell the first couple of years until supply and demand stabilizes.

Wurm, I agree with you whole heartedly...

Stock up now boy’s before the rush.

 

[siriusstoogie]

Thanks for all the reply. I must say I thought this thread was on its way out but got revived today!

Very interesting takes. In the end, we all are speculating right now. But the inevitable will come--hopefully sooner rather than later.

 

[arfdog]

I think one thing worth mentioning is that the huge fake-cigar enterprise (I have heard the cuban embassy is the supplier of the very extensive line in panama, I assume it is a transshipment point given that the large confiscation in france came from panama) is going to enter the US as well as actual cuban cigars. Given that every store in the country is going to want to offer some R&J churchills or cohiba products, I have no doubt that many will in fact be from places other than cuba. It would not surprise me if elements (rogue or not) in cuba itself facilitates this, as it does represent revenue regardless.

I think finding a store with consistent authentic supply in the US is going to be a headache once things open up, and available supply at overseas vendors is going to become more suspect and obviously more limited.

thots?