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1% contest

AVB

AVB

Jesus of Cool, I'm bad, I'm nationwide
Joined
Nov 14, 2003
Messages
23,646
Location
Near York, PA.
The common contest is when will someone hit 1,000 posts. This one will be a bit different. This post will be #991 for me but I'll only have .95% of the forum total posts. the person who correctly guesses what post number will give me 1% of the total forum posts will get a nice Gurkha sampler from me. You can guess twice a day (honor system) and all guessing will stop when I hit .98%. I'll let you know when that occurs.

This should give you math whizes something to do :p
 
What the heck - I'll play. I say post 1100

Good luck!
Dave
 
If the rest of the board members post at the same rate as you (or faster), you could theoretically never reach that 1% mark. :)

With that said, I'll guess 1120.
 
CC86 - you're math is great for a straight ratio - but with the unpredictablilty of PPD (Posts per day) and other CPers through off the ratio - it can't truely bye calculated, only approximated based on trends. All that said - I am too tired from work to do actual trending analysis right now, so I'll guess today and maybe I'll trend it tomorrow.

Lets say <throws dart at board> um...

1: 1111
2: 1017
 
coventrycat86 said:
Oh c'mon, this is WAY TOO EASY!!

Just do the math. The winner is:

1047

My second guess is:

1046

GREAT idea for a contest AVB :thumbs: Let's see if I'm really as smart as I think I am :p
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CC,

That guess could only be correct if AVB was the only one to post until he reached the 1%. The total number of post is continuosly growing, so the 1% number is climbing as well.



Guessing that the total post count climbs at the rate of 200 posts a day(just a WAG since I don't know how many total posts per day this site has).

Assuming you post at your current rate of 5 posts a day. (Yea, I know what happens when you ASSuME).

You should hit the 1% mark around post # 1083 or 1084.

Ouch, my head hurts. :p

Thanks for the contest. :thumbs:
 
vewyphishy said:
If the rest of the board members post at the same rate as you (or faster), you could theoretically never reach that 1% mark. :)

With that said, I'll guess 1120.
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I'll try to pad out the posting so I stay ahead of the curve :p
 
Car A is averaging 60 mph.

Car B is averaging 52 mph.

Can Car B ever be ahead or even with Car A?

Yes, but it cannot maintain it for very long if the avgs are correct.

AVB, start your surge now. Post 75 - 100 times a day for the next 10 days. IF, the rest of the board stays consistant, you may have a shot.

(edited in) - at 997 posts and a total of 104K+ you are 52 posts away from 1%, but every time someone posts the target number gets larger too! You need to post at a consistant 300% more than everyone else to start gaining ground. Try this.....Post at your regular rate today; stay up until 1AM-3AM PDT (when the forum is basically at a stand still) and post about 100 times. Then check the statistics. This may be the way to overcome the 5% deficit.

-OR- (more risky, desperate, and flirting with cheating) you can PM your log in information to whom you trust and they can help you out by posting under your monniker.

I'll guess 1365 and 1563.

I hope you type well. Finger pecking will NOT get it done.

Happy posting :)

M. Gipson
 
Your logic is faulty, if I post 5 times a day the rest of the board has to have 500 posts a day just to keep me in the same position. Anything less than 500 posts means I have to move up. These are approximate values but I hope you see what I mean.
 
AVB said:
Your logic is faulty, if I post 5 times a day the rest of the board has to have 500 posts a day just to keep me in the same position. Anything less than 500 posts means I have to move up. These are approximate values but I hope you see what I mean.
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You are right IF the target number were static. But, it is not, it is fluid. A daily rate of 1% does not equate to an overall 1%. When the target number is fluid you must continually increase your output to maintain a level. In order to raise that percentage, you must 'surge' when the only input to the total is yours.

I can't quote formulas, but, it makes sense in my peanut head.

M. Gipson
 
You only need to surge when the total is increasing at a faster rate. This obviously isn't the case. With about 105,000 posts I only need to move up 5 hundredths of one per cent or about 50 posts assuming a static total. If the total doesn't increase at a faster rate I have to move forward. Prove it to yourself. 1/(105,000/1000)=0.00952381 and 1/(105400/1005)=0.009535104 a small increase. Total posts went up 400 and mine only went up 5.
 
AVB said:
This is post 1001 and .96%
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AAHHHHHHH!

I stand corrected......You should hit 1% between 1050 and 1065 posts (I can't win because my guesses were already recorded for today). Statistically, the 'higher thinkers' here at CP made great points........but, the forum rounds to the hundredths place........so you don't have to have the input required to achieve a true 1%.

Any body who guessed between 1047 and 1100 should pay close attention.

Thanks for setting me straight. And all this time I thought math was optional for Marines :sign:

M. Gipson
 
My major was Economics and you should see the math required for that. The rounding will still give me an exact number when I cross the threshold to 1%, One post it's .99 and the next it is 1. You can make 2 guesses a day up to whenever I hit .98% by the rules.
 
AVB said:
You only need to surge when the total is increasing at a faster rate. This obviously isn't the case. With about 105,000 posts I only need to move up 5 hundredths of one per cent or about 50 posts assuming a static total. If the total doesn't increase at a faster rate I have to move forward. Prove it to yourself. 1/(105,000/1000)=0.00952381 and 1/(105400/1005)=0.009535104 a small increase. Total posts went up 400 and mine only went up 5.
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(Bowing with music and gifts)

You are right AVB. You the man.

Humbly requesting your tolerance.

M. Gipson :D
 
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