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How do YOU value aged/rare cigars?

CigarStone

CigarStone

For once, knowledge is making me poor!
Joined
Mar 7, 2007
Messages
12,790
Location
Northeast, Ohio
First Name
Jeff
I recently had to look at some of my older rare cigars for the possibility of trade. I reached out to a couple trusted members here to discuss what, if any, process to use to find a value. This brought back memories of when we used to discuss things like this for months.🤪

Given the volatility of cigar prices in recent years, I think it might be helpful to revisit this as it effects some of our old axioms of how to value trades, particularly with other brothers/sisters here.

Based on the discussions I had with others, I created a couple of examples. The principal behind the two methods is this. METHOD 1, the current price for that cigar plus a simple 5% per year. METHOD 2, double the current price of that cigar for the first ten years, and then 5% per year afterwards.

Obviously the cigar has to be rare to begin with i.e. a twenty year old Gurkha is still only worth $3.

Here are a couple images of charts using the different methods:

METHOD 1 AND 2 USING 5%

Aged cigars 5%.png


METHOD 1 AND 2 USING 4% AS A COMPARISON

Aged cigars 4%.png
 
Interesting question. For smokes from the forbidden island, the actual selling price on BR seems a reasonable metric. Rare and collectable stuff, be it cigars or cars or whatever, is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Usually. Most of the time... :)

I keep vacillating on selling some of the stuff I've accumulated over the years....this is a good question to ask.
 
bfreebern said:
We're supposed to hold on to and age cigars? Why didn't someone say this, 20 years ago!
Click to expand...
That hits me very funny because of the time my wife and I were in a vineyard somewhere, listening to the guy talk about some bottles we were purchasing. Tells us "....over the next few years, they'll really open up...". My wife and I looked at each other and cracked up..... 🤣 Probably not very connoisseur like, but damn we laughed.
 
On here - price what you paid - plus a few % for the years you aged it....storage fee, etc. (see Ginseng's thread).

G

Thread 'Tech Notes #2: Ratings, Characteristics, and Cigar Pricing'

Welcome to the second installment of this ongoing series looking at the technical side of the cigar world. In the first installment, I reported on research that was aimed at differentiating Cuban tobacco from non-Cuban tobacco using a fairly straightforward test that many analytical laboratories could execute. In this installment, I will step out of the lab and into the realm of marketing and economics to examine the relationship between quality, ratings, and price.

We’re going to take a look at a 2003 paper by Freccia, Jacobsen, and Kilby, professors of business administration and...


Out in the wild - whatever you want. (see Wade's)
 
Last edited:
grateful1 said:
On here - price what you paid - plus a few % for the years you aged it....storage fee, etc. (see Ginseng's thread).

G

Thread 'Tech Notes #2: Ratings, Characteristics, and Cigar Pricing'

Welcome to the second installment of this ongoing series looking at the technical side of the cigar world. In the first installment, I reported on research that was aimed at differentiating Cuban tobacco from non-Cuban tobacco using a fairly straightforward test that many analytical laboratories could execute. In this installment, I will step out of the lab and into the realm of marketing and economics to examine the relationship between quality, ratings, and price.

We’re going to take a look at a 2003 paper by Freccia, Jacobsen, and Kilby, professors of business administration and...


Out in the wild - whatever you want. (see Wade's)
Click to expand...
I wonder if that still applies Gary? This is part of the reason I created this thread. I always told my sales people "if you lose money on your expense report you're and idiot, if you make money on it, you're a thief."

If you have a rare, aged, NC and the outside world would pay $100 for it, should you really value it at $10 here, which is what you paid for it 20 years ago?
 
CigarStone said:
I wonder if that still applies Gary? This is part of the reason I created this thread. I always told my sales people "if you lose money on your expense report you're and idiot, if you make money on it, you're a thief."

If you have a rare, aged, NC and the outside world would pay $100 for it, should you really value it at $10 here, which is what you paid for it 20 years ago?
Click to expand...
Don't sell it here. ;)

Now...there may be a loop hole when it comes to MSRP (current vs original)... That would be a reasonable accepted concept.

Now... Think about the reason CP is what it is.
 
I see a lot being sold in between current MSRP and BR prices. Many times closer to current MSRP, so you should check that before you decide on a price. John
 
lucasbuck said:
Is it really profit if you’ve kept them for decades and price them accordingly? Should I sell my house for what I paid 30 years ago because it’s one of my brothers buying?
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These two questions are not relevant to each other.

"Is it really profit if..."

Yes.

"Should I sell..."

Sell it for what you like, but if the price asked is greater than the price paid, then that is profit.

"Profitable," is not a good/bad, right/wrong, or an appropriate/inappropriate value judgement. Different spectrums entirely.
 
llazy_llama said:
Sell it for what you like, but if the price asked is greater than the price paid, then that is profit.

"Profitable," is not a good/bad, right/wrong, or an appropriate/inappropriate value judgement. Different spectrums entirely.
Click to expand...
...very fair, and reasonable. But let me ask you, if you found Grandpa's Shelby AC Cobra in the garage he paid $3800 dollars for, would you sell it to me for the same price...?? Should I sell you the box of CoRo's I paid $500 for, for that price when they're going for $2500 every day on BR...??

Not busting your balls, but IMHO some consideration of accrued value has to be made or the simple fact is sales of the really cool stuff could vanish from CP. Not good or bad, but it's practical. I'm as generous as the next guy, but giving $$$ away on a sale is kinda a tough sell. Good discussion, good to think about. I surely don't have all the answers

...oh, and to be clear, I'll buy every single vintage AC Cobra you bring me for $3800...today, cash.... :cool:
 
BlindedByScience said:
...very fair, and reasonable. But let me ask you, if you found Grandpa's Shelby AC Cobra in the garage he paid $3800 dollars for, would you sell it to me for the same price...?? Should I sell you the box of CoRo's I paid $500 for, for that price when they're going for $2500 every day on BR...??

Not busting your balls, but IMHO some consideration of accrued value has to be made or the simple fact is sales of the really cool stuff could vanish from CP. Not good or bad, but it's practical. I'm as generous as the next guy, but giving $$$ away on a sale is kinda a tough sell. Good discussion, good to think about. I surely don't have all the answers

...oh, and to be clear, I'll buy every single vintage AC Cobra you bring me for $3800...today, cash.... :cool:
Click to expand...
I'll buy every box of CoRo for $500!
 
llazy_llama said:
These two questions are not relevant to each other.

"Is it really profit if..."

Yes.

"Should I sell..."

Sell it for what you like, but if the price asked is greater than the price paid, then that is profit.

"Profitable," is not a good/bad, right/wrong, or an appropriate/inappropriate value judgement. Different spectrums entirely.
Click to expand...
but if the price asked is greater than the price paid, then that is profit.

This statement isn’t true. $100 20 years ago is equivalent to $160 today due to inflation. If I sold something purchased for a $100 20 years ago, and sold it today for $140, it’s a $20 loss.
 
Smart Ash said:
but if the price asked is greater than the price paid, then that is profit.

This statement isn’t true. $100 20 years ago is equivalent to $160 today due to inflation. If I sold something purchased for a $100 20 years ago, and sold it today for $140, it’s a $20 loss.
Click to expand...

Yessir. There is a big difference between profiting and profiteering. And as you say selling something years after you buy it for more than you paid is not necessarily profit at all.

In my experience most cigars improve and many greatly with long age. There is a lot of value in that for some aficionados. I have paid serious premiums myself for aged stock over the years and was happy to.

Great discussion.
 
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