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What if?

J

J Lew

taste like chicken
Joined
Jun 4, 2002
Messages
719
Let's say ole' Fidel finally kicks the bucket and Cuba decides to become a democracy and the embargo is finally lifted.

Now.

Cuban cigars are legal. The price of Cubans now is fairly low even with the heavy taxing the Europeans put on them. (in comparison with ultra prems) Do you think that the price of Cubans will skyrocket, or will the other makers have to lower theirs.

This idea comes from the high cost of AF Don Carlos, PAMs, Opus, etc...way overpriced in comparison to ISOMs. imho :lookup:
 
I don't think that Cuba will become a democracy for a while, but if it did, I believe that the prices would drop. In America, we help create the crazed rush to Cuban cigars which shoots demand through the roof. If supply could somehow match that demand, the prices would go down. Think about this: Right now the trick is just getting Cuban cigars in your hands, not actually shopping price. If they were legal here (probably should be) then we would see price become an issue because they would be so readily available.

:lookup:
 
I bet that initially the prices would go through the roof....after a while though, it would drop
 
I'd have to say McPatrickClan is on the right track. First problem would be the stabilization of the country. If Fidel died (or was axed) today, it'd be years before embargos were lifted. In preparation for that event, the major players in Cuba would definately do their best to meet the demand that would follow the new freedom. And, with smugglers risking what they do to get the cigars in country, they've raised the prices higher than they already should be. I can pay prices for Cubans here in Japan or in Singapore (typically high cost areas - much more so than home) for prices on par with what's being paid in the states. That alone tells me they're inflated way too high! :) But then again, that's all IMHO.
R/
 
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$


For starters, it would cause another "cigar boom". That in it's self would drive prices up to ungodly amounts. At some point that "boom" would end...and yes we would see a decrease in price, but a decrease from what base price? I don't think it's unrealistic for the average cuban cigar price post-embargo to be upwards of $20+...after all during a "boom" type situation you have a lot of "wannabe's" smoking cigars because of popularity and they are willing to pay almost anything to be "cool" and hang with the "crowd". It's a costly situation...IMHO.
 
Mr. Beast,
good points, all. Something to think about. And maybe just enough to change my mind? :0 Probably not, but maybe!
 
Not to mention quality for all that demand would drop significantly.
 
If they were smart they would continue there focus on continued efforts to quality. While the lifting of the embargo would in the initial short term drive up cuban cigar cost (based on the fact that the common folks are drawn to things they can't have every Tom, Dick, and Harry will be clamoring for ISOM) it would put tremendous pressure on the existing system, which I believe is still being stretched. IMHO Do not sacrifice quality for the short term gains in profit.
 
TheBeast said:
For starters, it would cause another "cigar boom".
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Speaking of the cigar boom and being such a newbie to cigars, can someone tell me "what is what like back then?"

Was it chaos? Hell on earth? Etc?

Someone give me examples of the prices one had to pay and the lengths one had to go to get a fine cigar, please?
 
For me, no immediate change. I don't buy Cuban cigars anyway. I am economically challenged.

For those that do, I think, initially you watch the prices rise and quality go down. Eventually things would work out and the prices and quality fall in line with the others. Another thing to remember is that, more than likely, the tobacco grown in Cuba would become available on the open market. Suddenly Cubans aren't the only cigars made with that particular tobacco. Will some of the mystique be gone? I think so.
 
TheBeast said:
I don't think it's unrealistic for the average cuban cigar price post-embargo to be upwards of $20+
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I have to contest this on the basis that Cuban cigars are not significantly superior to other cigars simply because they are Cuban. Cuba has been known as the best place in the world to grow the ingredients in fine cigars and has cultivated this into an economic pillar of their Pinko-Commie society.

Let's say that the country with the absolute best climate, environment, etc. for cigar tobacco was not Cuba but was, in fact, Chile. Do we have any kind of problem with Chile? No. Is there any reason Chile couldn't just flood the market with high-quality cigars and keep the other countries on their heels all day? Yes. The other countries are not so far behind that they couldn't just pull out their best guns and go postal on the pricing as well. How does this keep the cigars at $20+ (Ultrapremium in anyone's wallet)? ANSWER: It's just not possible in today's economic climate that heavily favors the American consumer.

The general consensus right now in America is that Cuba holds some kind of mystical cigar magic that no other place known to man could ever hope to match. This is bull. Cuba puts out great cigars, to be sure, but the prices we pay now are based on the previously mentioned assumption. This is a simple application of supply & demand. Demand is through the roof because people think they are amazingly better cigars, simply because they are Cuban.

If you want to see this "mystique" in action, look no further than my signature. I am a sucker for this idea, just like many of my fellow Americans.
 
If the embargo was lifted, it wouldn't be any fun anymore!! This is the only adrenaline rush I get these days...........waiting to clear customs!!

LMAO :sign:
 
I'm confused as to why everyone thinks Cuban cigars are pricey? What would you choose, a box of isom Monte 2's for $200 or a box of Padron Anni exclusivo for $230?

I found both of those prices on line in a matter of minutes. Cuban cigars are not more expensive then any other quality cigar.

To answer the original question.....prices would go up and quality would go down. At least in the beginning anyway.
 
What Kenny said hits my point. Right now you can get the Cubans (depending on the size) lower priced than their ultrapremium counter parts. I recently picked up some Isom petit coronas for $4 apeice that kick the crap out of any 12-20 dollar ultrapremium I've ever had. I hope if it does happen this wont change. McPatrick there is a difference big time, maybe a little mystic ;) lol

maybe it wouldnt be as much fun Lee. Lmao
 
I read some where on JR's that Cuba is outputting somewhere around 2/3 of total capacity. If this is the case, if the Embargo is lifted, you gotta believe that could damn near match demand. Especially if you believe that 1/4 of the ISOM's made today are consumed by American smokers. Yeah, the quality would suffer as it has in the recent past. The price would probably be dependant on the applicable taxes here in the states. If I am correct, taxes in most of the states are lower than the taxes in the UK and Spain, not to mention the 20-30 dollars for shipping. Yeah there will be price gouging by a lot of local vendors, but the old reliables like JR's and Holt's probably would not change their business tactics. That's my $.02.

Emo
 
I think there will be a temporary drop in quality for about two or three years due to Cuba trying to get product out to the U.S. and to bring more money home to rebuild Cuba and bring it's standard of living up.

That will be a shame since the quality is just now getting better after many years of poor production and practices. Hopefully with Spain having half ownership currently it won't happen, but I don't think so. JMHO ???
 
I think we have the best situation right now. ISOMs are readily available, the prices are reasonable and the quality is back after a downturn in the late 90's. If the embargo is lifted (and I think it's going to take more than Fidel going to his eternal reward to do this), demand will skyrocket, prices will undoubtedly go up, production will try to keep up and the result will be that quality will suffer. I say keep the embargo! Don't buy products from these evil communist pig-dogs!
 
Don't buy products from these evil communist pig-dogs!
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no to go too political or off the subject, but how many products in our homes say "made in China" .
 
J Lew said:
no to go too political or off the subject, but how many products in our homes say "made in China" .
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Good point. It's worth noting though that China has never threatened our well-being with violent action. Cuba did attempt to work as a Russian base for serious nuclear missles. Once China attempts to invade Taiwan though, we are in for a real test. A war in Iraq, a war in Taiwan, come on Europe! We can't do all this ourselves!
 
On a post over at JR Lew said that he has a Dominican Cigar company storing enought cuban tobacco for him to roll 450,000 cigars. Just waiting for the embargo to lift. 22,500 boxes of cigars isn't going to supply all of the US but it's a great start. You also have to figure every other Cigar maker is doing the same thing.
 
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