Will U.S ever trade with Cuba?

[Zeebra]

So if and when Castro is finally gone, and potentially a democratic nation arises in Cuba (big if), will the U.S. finally start importing cuban cigars? What will this do to the price/demand?

Is this too far fetched to consider?

 

[emodx]

So if and when Castro is finally gone, and potentially a democratic nation arises in Cuba (big if), will the U.S. finally start importing cuban cigars? What will this do to the price/demand?

Is this too far fetched to consider?

[snapback]200402[/snapback]​

Someone dig up some links here, and CW, and HP and show the good fella all the different points of view.

Emo

 

[cvmfour]

They won't trade with Cuba now because they have nothing to offer like the Chinese do. It's just a hypocritic embargo that hasn't worked in 40 some odd years and won't ever work. The U.S. is the only country that follows the embargo so they just get stuff from other nations. Not to mention the big anti-castro cuban refugee communities in southern Florida. The politicians need their votes because FL could be a big swing vote state.

If Cuba turned to a democratic nation, I feel there will be a relaxing of the embargo. I also feel that quality will drop with cuban cigars due to the "forbidden fruit" now being legal. Everyone and their brother will want to try cuban cigars. So FWIW, I feel there will be a bad period with cuban cigars. But, it will eventually even itself out overtime.

 

[emodx]

They won't trade with Cuba now because they have nothing to offer like the Chinese do. It's just a hypocritic embargo that hasn't worked in 40 some odd years and won't ever work. The U.S. is the only country that follows the embargo so they just get stuff from other nations. Not to mention the big anti-castro cuban refugee communities in southern Florida. The politicians need their votes because FL could be a big swing vote state.

If Cuba turned to a democratic nation, I feel there will be a relaxing of the embargo. I also feel that quality will drop with cuban cigars due to the "forbidden fruit" now being legal. Everyone and their brother will want to try cuban cigars. So FWIW, I feel there will be a bad period with cuban cigars. But, it will eventually even itself out overtime.

[snapback]200413[/snapback]​

I disagree to a point, Habana's have gone through a rough spot a couple years back because they made too many vitolas and they had a big increase in demand (internet sales to the west). Apparently they figured out what they were doing wrong and remedied it. Granted Montes are still hit or miss in the construction department. If they remain consistent with their blends, you will see the fringe brands take off, they will increase in price to match domestics, and there for the premium Habana's will have to increase in price in step.

Lets face it, $400 is a lot of money to shell out for a box of Cohiba's. Any increase will put them that much more "unattainable" to the average American, not to mention the rest of the world.

Emo

 

[cvmfour]

I agree Emo...Because of the increase to the US markets, other markets will suffer. Because only so much tobacco can be grown out of Cuba.

 

[Zeebra]

I agree Emo...Because of the increase to the US markets, other markets will suffer. Because only so much tobacco can be grown out of Cuba.

[snapback]200436[/snapback]​

But then, would other cigar producing nations suddenly see demand drop if the U.S. suddenly started importing tons of cigars from Cuba. That would mean a winfall of prices if you're a fan of Dominican or other nations cigars. Just a thought.

 

[JimK]

Let's just hope things stay the way they are, for a variety of reasons.

JK

 

[cvmfour]

I think most people who are big into cigars have already tried a few cubans to begin with. My point was that every joe blow on the street will want a cuban because of the "wow" factor. Not to mention stretched supply lines, so to speak.

 

[Gonz]

I don't think the actual quality will drop, but I wouldn't be surprised if the perceived quality drops. Most folks who don't know much about cigars just think cubans are so great, because you can't get them. It's almost like a psychological supply and demand. Regardless of the actual quality of the product, people simply have a higher demand because (that word should be in italics) they are such short supply. They perceive them to be better, because they are hard to attain.

Those of us that know better, know that there is a plethora of great cigars out there that are from other countries.


Some college or grad student in economics has got to have written a paper about this at some point.

 

[Gonz]

I guess the implications are fairly obvious, demand for cigars from everywhere else in the world will go down, hence you would imagine prices would drop. I might think the current prices of Habanos are somewhat influenced by the fact that the largest population of cigar smokers in the world can't get them legally.

If some economics geek (I was one back in the day) actually did a serious study, I'll bet there would be some fairly interesting results.

I predict the price adjustment of non-cuban cigars would mostly, if not only affect the higher end market. i.e. Padron 40th, Opus X, etc. would not be so sought after if there is a flood of other equally good cigars (cuban) on the market. Why pay $20+ a cigar for 1926's when you can get just as good a cuban now, legally, for $15?

Anyhow, I'm sure this topic has been debated and beat down 50 other times around this and the other boards, and maybe what I've said isn't really a revalation to anyone, so nevermind...

 

[Peekay]

Some college or grad student in economics has got to have written a paper about this at some point.

[snapback]200462[/snapback]​

I just got done with grad school, maybe I can write it. :sign:

Having taken economics, and from what I can remember (setting aside issues of quality going down and assuming that everyone will want Cubans)is that price will remain consistent if the Cubans can keep up with demand. If demand skyrockets outpacing production so will price, until it becomes unattainable for the average person and they realize they are not selling anymore cigars or they outstretch production demand capabilities and have an oversupply. Price will remain consistent with supply and demand.

But assuming after the embargo ends, the price of Cubans should rise if consumers will be willingly to pay for it. As for the other cigar companies I really don't think the price will fall or rise, simply because the brands like Opus and Padron are not well known to the average person. Guys like ourselves will still hunt and peck for sharks, 26s,and other premium cigars. Less connoisseur lines may enjoy an increase in sales with people sampling a few other cigars after trying a Cuban cigar

This is all theory on my part and I maybe completely wrong, but I think our best source of evidence for support was the cigar boom in the 1990s. Maybe I can ask one of my old professors about the subject of supply and demand.

 

[the mayor]

the demand for cuban cigars would increase tenfold if they were made legal in the US. theres a large demand that cant be satisfied due to the legal issues. once the embargo would end, a whole new market, possibly as big as the current market, would be introduced.

i dont think current high end cigars would suffer. the average joe doesnt walk in and drop $15 for a cigar for poker night. these sticks appeal to the seasoned smoker. they sell and are profitable because they are great smokes. i know guys who prefer opus's to most cubans. in fact, you may see a decrease in internet price gouging since countless new high end sticks will be available as a substitute.

 

[dcbancroft]

Then we are really going to see a surge in fakes.... Every Dominican, Nicaraguan etc.etc. $1.00 a roll will have Cuban lables and boxes...and until you know better...youv'e been had.The Cuban cigar cartel and Russian Mafia is making some $$$$$$$ again.

Spread the word buy from me first... and get used to the real thing...

I have a question and am seeking answers???
Why is it that Cuban cigars are the best selling cigars around the world? Many countries have access to non-Cubans,why is it that the market is in low demand for Non-Cubans? Stronger cigarettes maybe??

Davidoff, Arturo Fuente's are all over , any other's(non-cubans) Interested in what other non-cuban brands are popular around the world??

Red Bull gives you wings...

 

[dcbancroft]

Oh..I forgot. What gives Arturo Fuente and his Opus X ?? No embargo gouging??

 

[atuck]

I just hope it stays the way it is. I love Cuban cigars and I have no problem getting them now. And Opus, Padron and even other high end NCs can be had for retail if you do your homework. Besides, the hunt for all these cigars is half the fun.

As far as the Cuban thing goes, my attitude is this:

Butthead says, "Huh huh, Let's break something!"
Beavis says, "Ya, Breakin' the Law Breakin' the Law!!"

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

 

[vitasea]

So if and when Castro is finally gone, and potentially a democratic nation arises in Cuba (big if), will the U.S. finally start importing cuban cigars? What will this do to the price/demand?

Is this too far fetched to consider?

[snapback]200402[/snapback]​

lets go back to the original question

in the last year or so all heads of ministries in cuba have been replaced with high ranking military officers loyal to the cause. this is in a large part to control all power in cuba on castros death. nothing will change from the present form of govenment..so no democratcy. there are one policeperson for evey 60 cuban citizens, with that i am also counting military ,security ,anyone charged with controling the people.

every one i talk to in cuba thinks at fidels death everything will change...no way their are to many powerful people who want there privaliges and life style to stay the same. What i believe will happen is that marshell law will be imposed and all securty people will be on full alert to prevent any kind of democratcy movement. rhere will be a breif power strugle and a strong man or two will emerge, and not raul, fidels brother to weak and no real power base

our stupid government,lead by the florida cuban mifia will continue its present misguided ways and continue the embargo, that i feel has kept castro in power all these years in the first place.

nothing will change in the cigar markets

 

[Johnny]

I've been posting this exact same question on different forums and lo and behold someones beat me to it. I just think it would be a shame when in the US you have so much choice of other countries cigars that the cache value of Cubans would lead to their demise. I hope for Cubans bought alongside the ones that you have now. If cigar smokers do turn from the DR, Honduran etc cigars then the message would be that there cigars were always 2nd rate and were make do cigars awaiting the day Cubans came back to the shops.

In the UK I enjoy Cubans now, and they are some of the most fantastic cigars I've ever smoked, but so are some of the ones I've got from the US recently, and I've not even tried CAO's and Toranos yet. I hope that when Cuba is allowed to export that their cigars are an added bonus in the cigar shops and not at the expense of brands now enjoyed.

 

[AVB]

My degree is in economics but you don't need to do a study to realize that demand will go up and so will prices, at least for the short term.

If some economics geek (I was one back in the day) actually did a serious study, I'll bet there would be some fairly interesting results.

[snapback]200464[/snapback]​

This is the single best, most coherent post you have made here. :thumbs:

lets go back to the original question

in the last year or so all heads of ministries in cuba have been replaced with high ranking military officers loyal to the cause. this is in a large part to control all power in cuba on castros death. nothing will change from the present form of govenment..so no democratcy. there are one policeperson for evey 60 cuban citizens, with that i am also counting military ,security ,anyone charged with controling the people.

every one i talk to in cuba thinks at fidels death everything will change...no way their are to many powerful people who want there privaliges and life style to stay the same. What i believe will happen is that marshell law will be imposed and all securty people will be on full alert to prevent any kind of democratcy movement. rhere will be a breif power strugle and a strong man or two will emerge, and not raul, fidels brother to weak and no real power base

our stupid government,lead by the florida cuban mifia will continue its present misguided ways and continue the embargo, that i feel has kept castro in power all these years in the first place.

nothing will change in the cigar markets

[snapback]200503[/snapback]​

 

[fetterjohn]

In my limited knowledge about the Cuban trade embargo, I know one thing. Cuba is having a hell of a time trying to meet the demand of the world for it's cigars. There are 4 grades of cigars coming out of the country. the fourth being the fakes. Grade 2 and 3 are not using Cuban wrappers...anyone here says different is wrong or dreaming. Oliva has been selling wrapper leaves to Cuba for years to use on most cigars coming out of Cuba. Only the grade A that goes to Spain, Switzerland and Hong Kong get aged Cuban wrapper. So nothing will happen to the quantity, only the quality. And will price change? Maybe, maybe not. But they will still be hard to get and not of the best quality. SO let's hope the embargo stays for a long time so we can smoke some quality smokes from the forbidden land.

-Fetter

 

[Nathan Rahl]

On the subject of Cuban cigars decreasing in quality, I found this article earlier today. Seems like some people think that already is happening. Pretty good article I thought. Kind of weird, I read the article and come here to find a topic on Cubans. :thumbs:

CA Article

As for supply/demand, I think that has already been covered pretty well. Basic economics. Well, a little more complex, but you get the idea.