Someone dig up some links here, and CW, and HP and show the good fella all the different points of view.Zeebra said:So if and when Castro is finally gone, and potentially a democratic nation arises in Cuba (big if), will the U.S. finally start importing cuban cigars? What will this do to the price/demand?
Is this too far fetched to consider?
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I disagree to a point, Habana's have gone through a rough spot a couple years back because they made too many vitolas and they had a big increase in demand (internet sales to the west). Apparently they figured out what they were doing wrong and remedied it. Granted Montes are still hit or miss in the construction department. If they remain consistent with their blends, you will see the fringe brands take off, they will increase in price to match domestics, and there for the premium Habana's will have to increase in price in step.cvmfour said:They won't trade with Cuba now because they have nothing to offer like the Chinese do. It's just a hypocritic embargo that hasn't worked in 40 some odd years and won't ever work. The U.S. is the only country that follows the embargo so they just get stuff from other nations. Not to mention the big anti-castro cuban refugee communities in southern Florida. The politicians need their votes because FL could be a big swing vote state.
If Cuba turned to a democratic nation, I feel there will be a relaxing of the embargo. I also feel that quality will drop with cuban cigars due to the "forbidden fruit" now being legal. Everyone and their brother will want to try cuban cigars. So FWIW, I feel there will be a bad period with cuban cigars. But, it will eventually even itself out overtime.
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cvmfour said:I agree Emo...Because of the increase to the US markets, other markets will suffer. Because only so much tobacco can be grown out of Cuba.
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Gonz said:Some college or grad student in economics has got to have written a paper about this at some point.
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lets go back to the original questionZeebra said:So if and when Castro is finally gone, and potentially a democratic nation arises in Cuba (big if), will the U.S. finally start importing cuban cigars? What will this do to the price/demand?
Is this too far fetched to consider?
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Gonz said:If some economics geek (I was one back in the day) actually did a serious study, I'll bet there would be some fairly interesting results.
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vitasea said:lets go back to the original question
in the last year or so all heads of ministries in cuba have been replaced with high ranking military officers loyal to the cause. this is in a large part to control all power in cuba on castros death. nothing will change from the present form of govenment..so no democratcy. there are one policeperson for evey 60 cuban citizens, with that i am also counting military ,security ,anyone charged with controling the people.
every one i talk to in cuba thinks at fidels death everything will change...no way their are to many powerful people who want there privaliges and life style to stay the same. What i believe will happen is that marshell law will be imposed and all securty people will be on full alert to prevent any kind of democratcy movement. rhere will be a breif power strugle and a strong man or two will emerge, and not raul, fidels brother to weak and no real power base
our stupid government,lead by the florida cuban mifia will continue its present misguided ways and continue the embargo, that i feel has kept castro in power all these years in the first place.
nothing will change in the cigar markets
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